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By Marc Morano Climate Depot November 4, 2015 227 PM with 2024 comments. Special To Climate Depot. The Pause lengthens again just in time for Paris. Firearms manufacturer Sig Sauer is offering a voluntary upgrade to owners of its P320 line of semiautomatic pistols, which have been on the market since 2014. Statistical Techniques Statistical Mechanics. SecurityStudy. No global warming at all for 1. The Pause lengthens again just in time for UN Summit in ParisThe Pause lengthens yet again. Edius 4.5 Software on this page. One third of Mans entire influence on climate since the Industrial Revolution has occurred since February 1. Yet the 2. 25 months since then show no global warming at all. With this months RSS Remote Sensing Systems satellite temperature record, the Pause beats last months record and now stands at 1. By Marc Morano Climate Depot. Search metadata Search full text of books Search TV captions Search archived web sites Advanced Search. November 4, 2. 01. PM with 2. 02. 4 comments. Special To Climate Depot. The Pause lengthens again just in time for Paris. No global warming at all for 1. By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley. As the faithful gather around their capering shamans in Paris for the New Superstitions annual festival of worship, the Pause lengthens yet again. Acp Observatory Control Software Crack Download' title='Acp Observatory Control Software Crack Download' />One third of Mans entire influence on climate since the Industrial Revolution has occurred since February 1. Yet the 2. 25 months since then show no global warming at all Fig. With this months RSS temperature record, the Pause beats last months record and now stands at 1. Figure 1. The least squares linear regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset shows no global warming for 1. February 1. 99. 7, though one third of all anthropogenic forcings have occurred during the period of the Pause. The accidental delegate from Burma provoked shrieks of fury from the congregation during the final benediction in Doha three years ago, when he said the Pause had endured for 1. Now, almost three years later, the Pause is almost three years longer. It is worth understanding just how surprised the modelers ought to be by the persistence of the Pause. NOAA, in a very rare fit of honesty, admitted in its 2. State of the Climate report that 1. The reason for NOAAs statement is that there is supposed to be a sharp and significant instantaneous response to a radiative forcing such as adding CO2 to the air. The steepness of this predicted response can be seen in Fig. Professor Richard Lindzens former student Professor Gerard Roe in 2. The graph of Roes model output shows that the initial expected response to a forcing is supposed to be an immediate and rapid warming. But, despite the very substantial forcings in the 1. February 1. 99. 7, not a flicker of warming has resulted. Figure 1a Models predict rapid initial warming in response to a forcing. Instead, no warming at all is occurring. Based on Roe 2. 00. At the Heartland and Philip Foster events in Paris, I shall reveal in detail the three serious errors that have led the models to over predict warming so grossly. The current el Nio, as Bob Tisdales distinguished series of reports here demonstrates, is at least as big as the Great el Nio of 1. The RSS temperature record is beginning to reflect its magnitude. From next month on, the Pause will probably shorten dramatically and may disappear altogether for a time. However, if there is a following la Nia, as there often is, the Pause may return at some time from the end of next year onward. The hiatus period of 1. RSS satellite temperature record and still show a sub zero trend. The start date is not cherry picked it is calculated. And the graph does not mean there is no such thing as global warming. Going back further shows a small warming rate. And yes, the start date for the Pause has been inching forward, though just a little more slowly than the end date, which is why the Pause continues on average to lengthen. So long a stasis in global temperature is simply inconsistent not only with the extremist predictions of the computer models but also with the panic whipped up by the rent seeking profiteers of doom rubbing their hands with glee in Paris. The UAH dataset shows a Pause almost as long as the RSS dataset. However, the much altered surface tamperature datasets show a small warming rate Fig. Figure 1b. The least squares linear regression trend on the mean of the GISS, Had. CRUT4 and NCDC terrestrial monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly datasets shows global warming at a rate equivalent to 1. C per century during the period of the Pause from January 1. September 2. 01. 5. Bearing in mind that one third of the 2. W m2 radiative forcing from all manmade sources since 1. Pause, a warming rate equivalent to little more than 1 Ccentury is not exactly alarming. As always, a note of caution. Merely because there has been little or no warming in recent decades, one may not draw the conclusion that warming has ended forever. The trend lines measure what has occurred they do not predict what will occur. The Pause politically useful though it may be to all who wish that the official scientific community would remember its duty of skepticism is far less important than the growing discrepancy between the predictions of the general circulation models and observed reality. Beastie Boys The Mix Up Rar'>Beastie Boys The Mix Up Rar. The divergence between the models predictions in 1. Fig. 2 and 2. 00. Fig. 3, on the one hand, and the observed outturn, on the other, continues to widen. If the Pause lengthens just a little more, the rate of warming in the quarter century since the IPCCs First Assessment Report in 1. Ccentury equivalent. Figure 2. Near term projections of warming at a rate equivalent to 2. Kcentury, made with substantial confidence in IPCC 1. January 1. 99. 0 to September 2. Kcentury equivalent, taken as the mean of the RSS and UAH v. Figure 3. Predicted temperature change, January 2. September 2. 01. 5, at a rate equivalent to 1. Ccentury orange zone with thick red best estimate trend line, compared with the near zero observed anomalies dark blue and real world trend bright blue, taken as the mean of the RSS and UAH v. As ever, the Technical Note explains the sources of the IPCCs predictions in 1. ARGO bathythermograph data the oceans are warming at a rate equivalent to less than a quarter of a Celsius degree per century. In a rational scientific discourse, those who had advocated extreme measures to prevent global warming would now be withdrawing and calmly rethinking their hypotheses. However, this is not a rational scientific discourse. On the questioners side it is rational on the believers side it is a matter of increasingly blind faith. The New Superstition is no fides quaerens intellectum. Key facts about global temperature. These facts should be shown to anyone who persists in believing that, in the words of Mr Obamas Twitteratus, global warming is real, manmade and dangerous. The RSS satellite dataset shows no global warming at all for 2. February 1. 99. 7 to Octber 2. There has been no warming even though one third of all anthropogenic forcings since 1. Pause began in February 1. Since 1. 95. 0, when a human influence on global temperature first became theoretically possible, the global warming trend has been equivalent to below 1. C per century. The global warming trend since 1. C per century. This is well within natural variability and may not have much to do with us. The fastest warming rate lasting 1. It was equivalent to 2. C per century. Compare the warming on the Central England temperature dataset in the 4. Industrial Revolution, equivalent to 4. Ccentury. In 1. IPCCs mid range prediction of near term warming was equivalent to 2. C per century, higher by two thirds than its current prediction of 1. Ccentury. The warming trend since 1. IPCC wrote its first report, is equivalent to 1 C per century. The IPCC had predicted close to thrice as much.